工程项目风险管理与保险（36页）.ppt
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Contents of Risk Analysis
Analysis of risk events evolution;
Risk Evaluation for :
Ⅰ occurring probability of risk events,Ⅱ varied possible risk consequences,
Ⅲ and their conditional probabilities given original event occurring.
Analysis of risk event evolution
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA, 故障树)
Event Tree Analysis（ETA，事件树）
What is a fault tree ？
Is a special kind of inverted tree logic causality diagram,
it USES event symbols, transfer of logic gate signs and symbols
to describe a cause-and-effect relationship between various events
in the system. Logic gate input output events \"because\", logic
gate output is the input events \"fruit\".
The procedure of fault tree analysis
1. Be familiar with the system
2. Investigate accidents
3. Determine the top event
4. Determine the target value
5. Reasons for investigation
6. Draw the fault tree
The procedure of fault tree analysis
7.Analysis
8. The accident probability
9. Comparing
10.Analysis
Supervision of project failure
From the owner's risk
From the contractor's risk
From the risk of supervision
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